The Paroli Betting System – My Ultimate Guide

Introduction To The Paroli Betting System
How Does the Paroli Betting System Work?
Implementing The Paroli Betting System
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Introduction To The Paroli Betting System

The Paroli betting system is a ‘positive’ progression betting system. In comparison to raising your bet amount or wager on a loss, you instead increase your wager after a win.

Often, The Paroli is referred to as the “Reverse-Martingale,” as instead of doubling the amount of your wager on a loss, you double the amount on a win. Does this make it any less caustic or risky? Not exactly.

This methodology is often used to champion winning streaks while trying to minimize the financial impact of losing streaks. Unfortunately, this strategy tends to promote the mindset of the ‘hot hand.’ This fallacy, much like the gambler’s fallacy, encourages risk. It promotes a pattern of thinking that the player who continually wins will continue to be successful or lucky.

Basing a prediction on a randomized series of events or outcomes is not the strongest basis for building a reliable gambling strategy. The mistake here is the belief that a smaller series of events indicates a larger sample. This is simply an “irrational and illogical” belief—a logical fallacy.

We must understand the role of ‘chance’ in gambling and betting (in all forms).

Does the Paroli strategic system have value within the context of gambling, despite this inherent adherence to logical fallacy?

How Does the Paroli Betting System Work?

While smaller patterns will often depict things that cannot be extrapolated to larger sequences, the Paroli system may help novice players. This is because they reserve their bankroll and only play with 1-2% of their total bankroll as a conservative approach.

The primary assumption of the Paroli betting system is that the gambler can improve and capitalize on his position by doubling down on winning bets. The problem with this risk is that doubling down on winning bets can expose the player to a larger financial loss that can potentially wipe out all previous net gains.

Conversely, you reduce the bet amount when there is a losing bet. In investments, this could be viewed as similar to a “stop-loss” order – put in place to minimize the potential for financial loss.

Implementing The Paroli Betting System

The practical idea behind the Paroli is that losses will be smaller, and larger wins can help to cover these. At the same time, this system requires you to revert to your base bet after three (3) wins or on a loss.

Decide upon a ‘base’ bet.
Place units in that amount as a wager on any even chance money bet.
On a win, you double the base bet.
On a loss, you return to the base bet.

This means the base bet would be doubled on a 3-win streak three consecutive times. This would net you seven (7) times the base bet in profit.

Reducing the bet after each loss will help to minimize the risk of losing more than the sum of your initial bet. Similarly, reducing your bet back to the base amount after three wins can minimize maximum profits but also protects total sum profits from incurring a (probable) loss.

What does this look like in action?

To begin the system, you need to determine a fixed base amount. This is the amount you will be staking at the start of each new cycle. For example, 2% of your total bankroll is a good starting point, but you should never exceed 5%. Let’s call your base bet $20 on black.

You then double this after winning. For example, if you bet $20 on even odds and win (black), you double your proceeding bet to $40 on black. If you follow this with a loss, you drop the bet amount down to $20.

The Paroli is pretty straightforward and simplistic to execute, hence the everlasting popularity of the system. The disadvantages of the Paroli are inherent to any betting system: it cannot guarantee to win you any money.